The rocket differential price of Colombian coffee has surprised some importers and coffee roasters beyond the perspective of a record 2026/2027 crop of arabica coffee in Brazil, forecasted at 47.5 million 60 kg bags (USDA report, 2026).
KEY POINTS
New harvest season in process in southern Colombia (Huila, Tolima, Cauca & Narino).
Meanwhile, the remaining regions (Traditional coffee belt, Santander and Sierra Nevada) get ready for the end of the year and keep seeing the flowering and beans ripening, although nowadays some micro regions produce small volumes known as Mitaca or Fly crop, considered as important due to the reduced produced volume as per the recent reports.
In the northern region (Sierra Nevada de Santa Marta and Serrania del Perija), the ANEI organic coffee producers are focused on the control of plagues, weeds, and caring for the ripening of green beans after a normal flowering time. However, some villages in the region still produce small volumes of dry coffee as a Mitaca for this region.
A recent report by FNC reflects a drop in Colombian coffee production.
National Federation of Coffee Growers of Colombia (FNC) released the monthly report of coffee production in Colombia; the info reflected a disrupted pattern in the flow of the crop. One reason is the climate in recent months, which affected the ripening time; also, due to the dropping price in the NYC market, joined with the revalued exchange rate USD:COP in recent weeks.
The accumulated 12-months volumen reflects a reduction of 13,7% compared with the same data from last May 2025; meanwhile, the range between January and May showed a reduction of 19,5% in 2025 vs. 2026.
The good demand for colombian coffee of the last months and the physical short position of the main players in the internal market (traders / exporters / middleman) have made a complex and agressive context of demand in the towns, it has strongly increased the price of the Colombia differential, this joined to an uncertain environment in the production volume for the coming months since the climate conditions of the previous ones were not good and has left not high expectations. These variables, as a whole, make it difficult to be sure that the volume will be enough, so traders and big players in the internal market have preferred the early hedge of the physical positions by purchasing the available coffee at aggressive prices.
ANEI’s organic production is not immune to this situation and the coffee producers have already expressed a decrease in the expected volume to be picked at the end of the year, however the production system of the plantations are more resilient to these complexity thanks to the organic management of the farms and the settlement up of the small ones farms to the unstable climate features as heavy rains or long warm times. Beyond these positive conditions in the farms, the reduction is a fact and will affect the total volume of the crop in ANEI, maybe not so big as the forecasted one in Colombia as a whole.
Climate conditions have not improved, and the expectations do not look promising for the coming months. “Super Niño” threatens the already reduced production in Colombia, and would affect the current and the coming crop at the end of the year 2026.
El Niño phenomenon in Colombia means dry season, but if it is highlighted as Super El Niño is even more intense or longer. If it happens, as hard as the climate agencies report it, then the effect on coffee production will be harder. The likelihood of more than 90% of this pattern keeps the coffee industry awake and makes it difficult to issue any forecast since the effect is unknown at the moment. A low frequency of rains and a lower volume of rainfall over the coffee plants anticipate lower coffee production in 2026, although this is not new at all because the news of Super Niño had been launched months ago.
Cost of production is not dropping as fast as the NYC price.
On the other hand, the exchange rate USD:COP at $3858 on 18th December 2025 up to $3570 on 9th June 2026 means a drop of $288 (-7,5%).
The variables above are the main sources to build the daily internal price in Colombia, and obviously the most concerning ones in the current situation of reduction of incomes for the coffee producer families. One kg of parchment on 11th November 2025 had a price of $24.240, and the same kg on 9th June 2026 has a price of $16.040 (-$8.200 // -34%). This analysis is done every day by the coffee producers and concerns them by seeing the drastic reduction in the coffee production incomes.
This situation should suppose a kind of compensation by lower production costs; however, the rate of reduction in those costs is not so fast, mainly because the economic, social, and political environment is not helping at all. As follows, further details:
Macroeconomic and social inputs (CPI, exchange rate USD:COP, mínimum wage increase, hand labor availability) and political context just before the Presidential elections.
Macroeconomic indexes are not marking any signal of reduction to support a lower production costs, by one side the current CPI index reached 5,84% (higher than the 5,68% of the previous may 2025), the minimum wage for 2026 was increased 23% against a CPI 2025 of 5,10%, the downtrend of the exchange rate (explained above), the increase in the prices of imported agricultural products as fertilizers due to the Iran / USA-Israel war, the lack of hand labor due to a low daily labor price in the farms and the reduction of available people thanks to the movement back of Venezuelan population to their country, added to the complex political environment of polarization between the followers of right party and left party just before the President elections are not helping at all to get lower costs for coffee production. Thus, the profitability of coffee production is lower every day, and the situation is not expected to change in the short future.
FINAL COMMENTS:
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